A Times/Siena poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by nine points nationally in the midterm race—wave territory suggesting they could flip the House and possibly the Senate. Yet Republicans hold a half-billion-dollar financial advantage, and Trump's unpopularity, while dragging his party, may paradoxically energize his base. Three New York Times political reporters analyze whether a blue wave is actually coming. Democrats lead Republicans by 9 points in the generic congressional ballot, comparable to 2018 wave conditions, making them favored to take the House and giving them a real chance at the Senate.