Mark Pincus, who built Zynga into a $10 billion company, reveals how to identify winning business ideas by picking the right 'body of water' before the boat. He shares frameworks for pattern-matching breakthrough products, lessons from investing early in Facebook for $38,000, and why consumer startups remain fundable today despite being 'unsexy' mature markets—exactly like gaming was in 2007. Choosing the right market ('body of water') matters far more than execution quality; Pincus's $38M revenue in 7 months came from entering social gaming, not superior product design.